Fed Rate Cut Buzz Grows as JPMorgan Shifts Forecast

In a notable shift ahead of a crucial policy meeting, economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co now expect the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next month. The change follows a wave of supportive comments from senior Fed officials, signalling that policymakers may be preparing to ease borrowing costs sooner than previously thought.

The revision comes just days before the Federal Open Market Committee convenes on December 9–10 in Washington. Until recently, JPMorgan had projected that the central bank would hold steady in December and only begin cutting rates in January, a stance influenced by the delayed September jobs report released last week.

However, remarks from key voices inside the Fed — particularly New York Fed President John Williams — have prompted the bank to reassess the timeline. According to JPMorgan’s latest outlook, the Fed is now expected to issue two quarter-point cuts, one in December and another in January, bringing the easing cycle forward by a month.

Market reaction appears to mirror this shift. Swap traders are currently pricing in roughly an 80% probability of a rate cut next week — a sharp rise from less than 30% just a week earlier. The surge in expectations reflects growing confidence that the central bank may act promptly to support the economy amid evolving labour data and shifting signals from policymakers.

As the countdown to the December meeting begins, the recalibrated forecasts have added fresh momentum to market chatter and heightened attention on the Fed’s next move, setting the stage for one of the most closely watched decisions of the year.