Tensions Rise as ISI Blames India Amid Political Unrest in Bangladesh

New intelligence reports and regional evaluations indicate that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is allegedly inflaming anti-India sentiments during Bangladesh’s current political turmoil and unrest.

Authorities monitoring the situation in Dhaka claim a coordinated effort is emerging from certain segments of Pakistani media and specific political entities. Allegations have risen, suggesting India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) was involved in the assassination of Bangladeshi student leader Sharif Osman Hadi, despite local investigators stating that their work is still in preliminary stages and motives remain uncertain.

Indian officials characterize these claims as misleading and intentionally timed. They believe the objective is to portray Bangladesh’s internal issues as an external crisis linked to India. Notably, only Pakistan has publicly attributed blame to India amid the ongoing situation in Bangladesh.

The rhetoric escalated following a video message from Kamran Sayeed Usmani, a leader of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), which gained traction online. In the video, Usmani holds India responsible for Bangladesh's instability, even making ominous threats about missile strikes. Security officials have condemned these statements as reckless, asserting they serve only to exacerbate tensions rather than promote peace.

Intelligence analysts have noted a distinct strategy behind this communication. By targeting India, the ISI and its affiliates aim to globalize Bangladesh’s domestic issues, diverting scrutiny from internal political dynamics. Officials contend that the unrest is deeply rooted in long-standing intrusions by Pakistan's deep state, which has purportedly weakened the position of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina while bolstering Jamaat-e-Islami’s influence.

Observers highlight the historical links between Jamaat-e-Islami and ISI interests, a view shared by several regional and international entities. The international community appears cognizant of these connections and has not ratified the allegations aimed at India.

Historical grievances also contribute to these tensions. Analysts emphasize that Pakistan has yet to fully come to terms with the results of the 1971 war, which led to the establishment of Bangladesh. Current efforts to foster anti-India resentment may be fuelled by a desire to rekindle these historic wounds and sway public opinion in Bangladesh against New Delhi through misinformation.

Nonetheless, political shifts are underway in Bangladesh. The Bangladesh National Party (BNP), previously allied with Jamaat-e-Islami, has distanced itself from both Jamaat and any alleged ISI affiliations. Party leaders have suggested a focus on development and stability, which has received positive feedback from voters.

The BNP's recent decision to participate in elections independently has reportedly alarmed Jamaat and its supporters. With the Awami League excluded from the electoral process, projections suggest that the BNP stands a significant chance of winning in the February 2026 elections.

The party may also benefit from public favor towards its ailing leader and former PM, Khaleda Zia, alongside the anticipated return of her son, Tarique Rahman, after 17 years of exile, which is expected to energize party supporters.

Security agencies express concern that these developments have heightened fears among Jamaat-aligned groups. Intelligence reports indicate that violence is being intentionally incited to sow terror and suppress voter turnout, aiming to manipulate electoral results.

Experts observe that while external pressure mounts to ensure timely elections, questions linger over their fairness. Growing worries suggest that either a brief delay or a highly contentious election could be imminent.

Officials assert that alongside attempts to sway the elections, disseminating anti-India narratives is a strategic maneuver to distract from internal political challenges in Bangladesh. They are skeptical about the success of these efforts in light of increasing global scrutiny but caution that the upcoming months may prove to be unstable.