French Voters Return to Polls for Pivotal Second Round of Snap Parliamentary Election

Voters across France are heading to the polls for the second round of a snap parliamentary election called by President Emmanuel Macron. This election could significantly reshape the French political landscape, with Macron risking the loss of many centrist allies in parliament, potentially forcing him into an uneasy alliance with the far right.

In the first round of voting last Sunday, the far-right National Rally (RN), led by the young Jordan Bardella and overseen by Marine Le Pen, took a commanding lead. The RN secured 33% of the popular vote, making it closer to power than ever before. The newly-formed left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP), followed with 28%, while Macron’s Ensemble alliance lagged behind with 21%.

The RN's rise has spurred both Ensemble and the NFP into action. To counter the threat of a far-right government, hundreds of candidates from these groups have stepped down in specific constituencies, aiming to prevent the RN from securing an absolute majority. The stakes are high, as this would be France’s first far-right government since the Vichy regime during World War II.

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Voting started at 8 a.m. local time (2 a.m. ET) and will determine the composition of the 577-member National Assembly. A party needs 289 seats to hold an absolute majority. In the outgoing parliament, Macron’s alliance held 250 seats and relied on support from other parties to pass legislation.

In the first round, only those who received more than 12.5% of registered votes could advance to the second round. This led to an unprecedented number of three-way run-offs in over 300 constituencies, reflecting the deep polarization within French politics. To avoid splitting the anti-far-right vote, over 200 candidates from Macron’s Ensemble and the NFP agreed to withdraw from the second round.

While the RN's strong performance in the first round suggests it could more than triple its 88 seats from the outgoing parliament, it remains uncertain whether it can achieve an outright majority. Bardella has stated he will not form a minority government, leaving Macron to potentially seek a prime minister from the hard left or other quarters.

Regardless of the election outcome, France is likely to face a period of political turbulence, as Macron will be unable to call another parliamentary election for at least a year. This election, held three years ahead of schedule, was called by Macron after his party's poor performance in the European Parliament elections last month. Although these results do not directly impact domestic politics, Macron felt compelled to address the voters' message.

Some analysts speculate that Macron's decision to call a snap election was strategic, aiming to expose the RN to the rigors of governance before the 2027 presidential and parliamentary elections. However, if the RN refuses to form a minority government, this strategy could backfire.

An RN-led government would have significant implications for France and Europe. The party's economic proposals, such as reducing value-added tax on energy products, have raised concerns in financial markets and could clash with the EU's strict spending regulations. On a broader scale, an RN victory would contribute to Europe's rightward shift, affecting collective stances on issues like support for Ukraine, migration, and climate change.

Standing in the way of an RN majority is the NFP, which includes both radical figures like Jean-Luc Melenchon of France Unbowed and more moderate leaders like Raphael Glucksmann of Place Publique. While Macron’s Ensemble has pledged to do everything to prevent the RN from gaining power, it has ruled out collaboration with France Unbowed. Outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has explicitly refused any alliance with Melenchon.

Polls will close at 8 p.m. local time (2 p.m. ET), with full results expected early Monday. The outcome will determine whether Macron faces a turbulent partnership with the far right or if another political configuration will emerge.

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