Opinion | Higher Expectations: The Reasons China Is 'Going Nuclear' 'More Quickly Than Before'

Photo-Reuters

Recent data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reveals that global nuclear powers are intensifying their investments to bolster their arsenals. Despite an overall decrease in the total number of nuclear warheads worldwide, operational warheads are on the rise. Predominantly, the United States and Russia possess the majority of these warheads.

China, however, stands out for its rapid expansion of nuclear capabilities, reportedly increasing its arsenal faster than any other nation. As of January 2024, SIPRI estimates China's nuclear warhead count at approximately 500, with projections from the US Defense Department suggesting this could surpass 1,000 by 2030. Notably, China has now placed some of its warheads on high alert, marking a strategic shift.

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This escalation in China's nuclear arsenal is underscored by efforts to enhance its land-, sea-, and air-based delivery systems, including the construction of new Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) silos. China's nuclear strategy centers on "assured retaliation," ensuring the ability to withstand an initial attack and retaliate decisively, aligning with its longstanding policy of no-first-use of nuclear weapons.

Key factors driving China's nuclear buildup include shifts in US national security strategies perceived as containment-oriented, advancements in American missile defense capabilities, and concerns over lowering thresholds for nuclear weapon use. These factors have prompted China to prioritize modernizing its nuclear forces to maintain strategic deterrence.

Furthermore, China's nuclear modernization serves broader goals beyond defense, aiming to bolster its status as a global power and enhance international strategic stability. This ambition is reflected in President Xi Jinping's directives to accelerate advancements in China's strategic deterrent capabilities, particularly amid heightened regional tensions such as those surrounding Taiwan.

Despite sporadic dialogues between China and the US on nuclear issues, substantive progress remains elusive. China's push for a no-first-use treaty and calls for greater transparency underscore its intent to shape global nuclear norms from a position of strength.

For India, understanding China's nuclear strategy involves considering not only strategic parity but also broader geopolitical implications, including regional stability and proliferation concerns. Discussions around nuclear doctrines and international agreements present opportunities for constructive engagement amidst evolving global dynamics.

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