What Is Atlantic Nina? La Nina's Cousin That Might Impact Hurricane Season

Post by: Raman Preet

In a rare meteorological event, both La Nina and its lesser-known counterpart, Atlantic Nina, appeared to be developing simultaneously in August 2024. This unusual combination could influence the Atlantic hurricane season in complex ways.

The North Atlantic Ocean has experienced elevated surface temperatures for several months, reaching near-record highs. However, recent cooling along the equator in both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific could offer some respite, particularly for vulnerable coral reef ecosystems. This cooling is attributed to two distinct climate phenomena: La Nina, which originates in the tropical Pacific, and Atlantic Nina, which affects the Atlantic Ocean.

La Nina is a component of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, a significant climate pattern that impacts global weather and climate. During a La Nina event, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific drop below average, and easterly trade winds intensify. This results in increased upwelling of cooler waters off the coast of South America, which in turn influences atmospheric conditions worldwide. La Nina typically reduces wind shear in the Atlantic, potentially fostering conditions favorable for hurricane formation.

In contrast, Atlantic Nina is a smaller-scale climate phenomenon affecting the Atlantic Ocean. It usually peaks in July or August and has more localized and modest impacts compared to La Nina. Atlantic Ninas generally counteract the effects of Atlantic Ninos, which tend to alter rainfall patterns in Africa and Brazil.

In July and August 2024, meteorologists observed signs of an Atlantic Nina forming in the tropical Atlantic, despite the warm sea surface temperatures that persisted until early June. Concurrently, the eastern Pacific saw cooling trends indicative of an impending La Nina by October or November.

The simultaneous occurrence of La Nina and Atlantic Nina is uncommon. Typically, either La Nina or El Nino, combined with Atlantic Nina or El Nino, is observed. The interaction between these phenomena is akin to two pendulums moving in sync but in opposite directions, creating a complex interplay of climatic effects.

The emergence of an Atlantic Nina might initially seem beneficial for hurricane-prone regions. Cooler waters off the coast of Africa could suppress the formation of African easterly waves, which are clusters of thunderstorms that can develop into tropical storms or hurricanes. The reduction in warm sea surface temperatures could potentially weaken the energy available for storm development.

However, NOAA’s August update on the Atlantic hurricane season forecast still predicts an extremely active season. Despite the cooling effects of Atlantic Nina, near-record warm sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and the anticipated La Nina in the Pacific, which weakens wind shear, could intensify hurricane activity.

The past two years have seen consistently high ocean temperatures globally. While the twin Ninas may provide some temporary cooling relief in specific regions, their effects are unlikely to counteract the overarching trend of global warming. Rising greenhouse gas emissions continue to elevate baseline temperatures and contribute to the potential severity of hurricanes.

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