Consumer Confidence High: RBI Survey Shows Optimism in Economy

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has forecasted that for the fiscal year 2025, inflation will be around 4.5%. This projection includes specific estimates for each quarter: Q1 at 4.9%, Q2 at 3.8%, Q3 at 4.6%, and Q4 at 4.5%.

According to the latest surveys conducted by the RBI, Indian consumers are exhibiting a high level of optimism regarding various economic factors. The Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS) indicates that consumers are optimistic about the general economic situation, income spending, and employment conditions for the upcoming year. 

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The Current Situation Index (CSI), reflecting the current economic conditions, has risen by 3.4 points to 98.5, the highest level since mid-2019. Similarly, the Future Expectations Index (FEI), which measures optimism about the future, has increased by 2.1 points to 125.2, also the highest since mid-2019.

The surveys show that households have positive sentiments regarding the general economic situation, employment prospects, and income growth. Respondents expect an improvement in income levels in the coming year.

The RBI's Households' Inflation Expectations survey indicates a moderation in inflation expectations for both the short-term and long-term. Expectations for inflation three months ahead have moderated to 9%, while expectations for inflation one year ahead have decreased to 9.8%.

The survey also highlights that uncertainties in food prices continue to pose challenges. Therefore, the RBI emphasizes the need for an actively disinflationary monetary policy to anchor inflation expectations and ensure the transmission of past policy actions.

Overall, the surveys provide insights into the optimistic outlook of Indian consumers and the challenges ahead in managing inflationary pressures, particularly in the context of food prices.

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