Trump and UK's Keir Starmer Poised for a Rocky 'Special Relationship'

Post by: Omar Nasser

Photo : AFP

Keir Starmer has emphasized that the UK-US special relationship will thrive under Donald Trump, despite multiple challenges that the British Labour government might face with the Republican president's return to the White House.

While Starmer made an early attempt at diplomatic outreach by calling Trump to offer congratulations, the Labour government in the UK has several concerns regarding Trump's policies. These concerns range from potential trade wars to friction over the UK’s support for Ukraine and NATO, as well as Trump’s unpredictable stance on international relations.

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The UK’s “iron-clad” support for Ukraine amidst Russia’s invasion and its commitment to NATO could face scrutiny under Trump, who has questioned the importance of both in the past. Richard Whitman, an international relations professor at the University of Kent, noted that British foreign policy is heavily influenced by the US, so any change in Trump’s position on these issues could put the UK in a precarious position, especially after the country’s significant financial and military investment in Ukraine. Whitman also pointed out that the UK can't easily reverse its stance on Ukraine, given the political and economic cost of shifting policy.

Simultaneously, Trump’s stance on trade and the European Union could present further complications. In the past, Trump threatened hefty tariffs on US imports, including a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods, which could destabilize the global economic order. If Trump initiates a trade war with the EU, the UK, post-Brexit, could find itself caught between its allies in Europe and the US, potentially damaging Britain’s economy.

Trump’s planned tariffs could directly affect the UK, with experts warning that they could halve the country's economic growth within the next two years, further exacerbating inflation and interest rates. Economists like Lindsay James of Quilter Investors suggest that any trade deal negotiations between the US and the UK are unlikely to gain momentum, as Britain does not have a strong bargaining position to counter Trump's economic policies.

Labour’s ties to the Democratic Party have historically been strong, and several Labour figures attended the 2020 Democratic National Convention in Chicago. However, the Labour Party’s past critical stance on Trump, including harsh remarks from Foreign Secretary David Lammy calling Trump a "neo-Nazi sympathizing sociopath," could lead to awkward relations. Lammy, who was vocal in his criticism of Trump during his first term, remains in his position, despite the tension caused by his remarks.

However, Starmer, who has tried to build bridges with Trump, notably dining with him in September, faces the challenge of navigating this difficult relationship while maintaining the Labour Party’s identity. Minister Pat McFadden downplayed the friction, saying that Trump’s admiration for the UK and shared values would outweigh past differences.

An additional issue that complicates relations is the potential role of tech billionaire Elon Musk, a vocal Trump supporter, in Trump's administration. Musk’s controversial comments, particularly his statement about far-right riots leading to "civil war," have already stirred backlash in the UK, raising concerns about the influence of figures who might contribute to further polarizing US-UK relations.

Another point of contention lies in the differences between Trump and Labour on climate change. While Trump has remained a staunch climate change skeptic, the UK under Starmer has been determined to position itself as a leader in clean energy, further highlighting the potential for discord.

Despite these numerous challenges, experts suggest that the UK-US relationship is resilient and likely to endure. The “special relationship,” forged during World War II, has survived political differences on both sides of the Atlantic for over 80 years, thanks to the deep institutional structures that underpin it. Simon Fraser, a former senior civil servant in the UK’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office, stressed that while top-level political disagreements may cause tension, the enduring ties between the two countries would likely remain intact. However, Richard Whitman warns that the UK's lack of a clear “plan B” for its relationship with the US, particularly following Brexit, could leave the UK adrift should the special relationship weaken.

Ultimately, while the political landscape may shift dramatically under Trump’s second presidency, both countries’ shared interests and institutions will likely ensure the survival of the special relationship, even in the face of these new challenges.

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