Climate Change Amplifies UAE and Oman Flooding by Up to 40%: Study

Photo : Reuters

Recent rainstorms in the UAE and Oman were substantially more intense, ranging from 10 to 40 percent, due to climate change, according to findings from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) research initiative. Greenhouse gas emissions were identified as the primary cause, exacerbating the destructive nature of the storms compared to pre-industrial times. The conjunction of the El Niño climate pattern and global warming further heightened the severity of the storms.

The repercussions of these intensified storms were dire, resulting in the loss of twenty lives in Oman and four in the Emirates. The onslaught of storms inundated the Gulf nations, particularly impacting Dubai and Sharjah, where four successive waves of rainstorms left significant portions of the cities submerged.

Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London and a researcher with WWA, emphasized the combined influence of El Niño and climate change in driving the extreme weather event. Otto stated that without both factors, the intensity of the rainfall would have been substantially lower.

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Moreover, a separate scientific analysis predicted a potential 30 percent increase in annual rainfall in the UAE by the mid-21st century. Last week, Dubai experienced over 250 millimeters (10 inches) of rainfall over two days, underscoring the magnitude of the deluge.

Despite advancements in infrastructure and early-warning systems, a significant portion of the population in Oman (80%) and the UAE (85%) resides in low-lying, flood-prone areas, as highlighted by WWA.

Dr. Hylke Beck, an assistant professor at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia, stressed the necessity for the Gulf nations to prepare for a wetter future. He explained that as the atmosphere warms, it can hold approximately seven percent more moisture for every degree Celsius of warming, resulting in heavier rainfall events.

According to climate models, under a moderate greenhouse gas emission scenario, the intensity of the most severe rainfall event in the UAE by the end of the century is projected to increase by 10 to 15 percent.

The Climate Futures Report, co-authored by Dr. Beck, also identified rising sea levels as a contributing factor to increased coastal flooding and erosion, storm surges, and saltwater contamination of groundwater in the region.

While attributing a single event solely to climate change is challenging, Prof. Jos Lelieveld of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Germany and The Cyprus Institute emphasized the increasing likelihood of such extreme events due to climate change.

Factors exacerbating the vulnerability of the region to severe flooding include short-duration and intense rainfall, hard and dry soil that impedes water absorption, rapid urbanization leading to reduced permeable ground, and population growth heightening the risk of casualties.

Dr. Beck noted that recent storms, including the 2016 event in Dubai, were attributed to mesoscale convective systems, where moist air from the Arabian Gulf converges in areas of low pressure, leading to significant rainfall. Research indicates an increase in the duration of these systems over the UAE in the past two decades.

Dr. Beck emphasized the importance of early-warning systems to mitigate the impact of natural hazards such as floods. However, he also underscored the need for robust floodwater infrastructure, including drainage systems, capable of handling severe events, and the necessity for regular maintenance to prevent clogging.

As the region grapples with the aftermath of intensified storms, the call for bolstering defenses against future climate-related disasters becomes increasingly urgent.

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